Balance of Power

I don’t recall whether it was in history class or in my analyst class where I came to an understanding that today still lingers in my bones. The most dangerous times in history are those where there is an impending shift in the balance of power. This is when conflicts start. The declining party, when it senses that the shift in power is eminent, wants to move while it still is on top. The rising power, on the other hand wants to accelerate the growth of its strength, anticipating an advance by the weakening one. This principal applies not only to shifts in military might but also to economic standing. Navigating this transition without catastrophic results is a delicate and difficult matter. Today we are in such a time. It is broadly predicted that China will soon surpass the US in GDP. Indian, and in fact, Asian economies in general, are growing while globalization is lowering the economic potency of individual countries not to mention the economic impact of rapid advances in technology. Information processing is making administrative and managerial labor obsolete and robots are replacing factory workers. And who knows what chaos artificial intelligence will bring. I am not predicting doom but pointing out that to navigate these waters, we must move cautiously and with great insight and skill. On another front, there is also a demographic shift in the balance. The world is becoming more diverse and less Eurocentric and white. Vice President Pence, in his address to NATO the other day talked about our need to protect (from whom?) our common heritage, ideologies and values. Our origins as a country (if you want to discount our natives and our slaves) are indeed Western European. However, having said that, I always thought that our strength stems from being a unique conglomeration of many people and our diversity, not our Europeanism. I remember years ago eating at a hibachi table where sitting with us were two elderly couples. The table was set with chop sticks. One of the old guys called the waiter over and asked for a fork and said to his friend, he wanted to eat with an American utensil. I wanted to tell him that a fork is a European utensil and no more American than chopsticks. I decided not to because he wouldn’t understand. In his mind America is a culturally European, white, Christian nation. The birth rate in Western Europe and that of our white populations is declining and population growth is one of the prerequisites for economic grows. In fact I read about advertisements on TV in Denmark encouraging women to have more babies. Though in this country there is a modest population growth. It is primarily due to immigration and a larger birth rate among our non-European immigrant populations. In our country it is predicted that the pure white population will become a minority in a couple of decades if not sooner. (Currently if one even has only a small fraction of African blood running through their vanes, they are not considered white but black. I think if we categorized race correctly, for example: an individual whose paternal grandmother was black and the other grandmother along with both grandfathers were white, and they were categorized as white, then it will take longer before white people become a minority.) The older white people are frightened of losing their superior position and unfortunately politicians are stoking these fears hinting that the slowdown in some of their opportunities is due, not to advances in technology and shifts in market forces but to the darker population of the world. In response to these fears, over the last decade there has been a rise in xenophobia throughout the Western World including our country. When it comes to the military however, I don’t see and impending shift in the balance of power. Yes, China is building up its naval forces but we still spend more than the next 6 countries combined (we spend $596Bn/yr., China $215Bn, Saudi Arabia $87Bn and Russia $66Bn). We have the largest nuclear arsenal by far and our troops by far are more broadly distributed over the surface of this earth than any of our potential adversaries. The real danger, as I see it is the economic shift in the balance of power. The “darkening of the world”, though real, doesn’t present a threat to anyone unless one feels there is a strong advantage to being white and that is slipping away. Though there is much made of the “war between the West and Islam”, Islam poses no threat to the West. It has no economic standing and no military to speak of (though our close ally, Saudi Arabia has both). However, with the unrest in the Middle East, it makes Islam a great justification for limiting the further browning of our countries and it distracts from having to deal with real issues. So how do we navigate this transition without catastrophic results? President Trump used a brilliant strategy to win the election. The one word titles; Lying Ted, Little Marco, Un-energetic Jeb, Crooked Hillary, extremist Islamic terrorism, etc. etc. This worked because the words were repeated ad nauseam until every time we heard something from Ted, we instantly questioned whether it was a lie. He had to prove he was telling the truth instead of we proving that he was lying. These words will rouse his base but certainly they will not keep our Country great nor make the world a better and safer place to live. (He seems to be continuing this strategy with the “fake news” line). Already President Trump is starting to see the unintended consequences of governing recklessly by slogans. He envisions Jews and Israel as part of the “West”. Having stoked the Alt-Right with its Neo-Fascist tendencies, the President is starting to see through the increased anti-Semitic acts, that they don’t see eye to eye with him. Some in the Alt-Right along with the European Nationalist movements maybe now don’t see Jews as “one of us” as he does, but as “the other”. Nationalism is now on the rise in Mexico and it is not out of the question that we will be replaced by China or Russia as Mexico’s favorite friend. Then, when we have and adversary on our border, the military balance of power will indeed have started to shift. Now is the time to put sloganeering aside. It’s fine while your campaigning, but now it is ever more important for the President to be a well informed and a good, clear thinker while surrounding himself with people with demonstrated skills and to “think twice and act once” (though given the delicacy and grave danger of this sifting balance of power, maybe it should be, think ten times and act once).